Receipts, forward grading, and method live together so the proof path is readable without a wallet.
| Time | Pair | Decision | Action | Signals | Checksum | Proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 04:58 | SOLUSDT | Veto | Trade | 4/3 | d5e070ce...17e7b1 | View -> |
| Aug 20, 04:57 | ETHUSDT | No edge yet | No Trade | 4/3 | 00776e99...7601bb | View -> |
| Aug 20, 04:57 | BTCUSDT | Veto | Trade | 4/3 | 0369a9be...e8f10b | View -> |
| Aug 20, 01:56 | SOLUSDT | Veto | Trade | 4/3 | a284ac98...f95244 | View -> |
| Aug 20, 01:55 | ETHUSDT | No edge yet | No Trade | 4/3 | 062b8cee...e38236 | View -> |
| Aug 20, 01:54 | BTCUSDT | Veto | Trade | 4/3 | 30da391a...763181 | View -> |
| Aug 19, 20:50 | SOLUSDT | Approve | Trade | 4/3 | ed620000...5da67a | View -> |
| Aug 19, 20:49 | ETHUSDT | Veto | Trade | 4/3 | 7edcaa19...e742d5 | View -> |
| Aug 19, 20:48 | BTCUSDT | Veto | Trade | 4/3 | a928dc18...dae159 | View -> |
| Aug 19, 16:52 | SOLUSDT | Veto | Trade | 4/3 | 343880af...0805d1 | View -> |
| Aug 19, 16:51 | ETHUSDT | Veto | Trade | 4/3 | 88d4ff98...3f5328 | View -> |
| Aug 19, 16:50 | BTCUSDT | Approve | Trade | 4/3 | 49ccab55...89e34d | View -> |
| Aug 19, 13:14 | ETHUSDT | No edge yet | No Trade | 4/3 | 535c6650...8fa9b9 | View -> |
| Aug 19, 13:13 | BTCUSDT | No edge yet | No Trade | 4/3 | 6205a5f7...56315a | View -> |
| Aug 19, 13:13 | SOLUSDT | No edge yet | No Trade | 4/3 | 1d2e2e88...ee2fee | View -> |
| Aug 19, 08:58 | SOLUSDT | No edge yet | No Trade | 4/3 | 3b5637cc...b8bb1f | View -> |
| Aug 19, 08:57 | ETHUSDT | No edge yet | No Trade | 4/3 | 5042a75c...fab910 | View -> |
| Aug 19, 08:57 | BTCUSDT | No edge yet | No Trade | 4/3 | f06fe40c...64ceb5 | View -> |
| Time | Thesis | Conviction | Outcome | Grade | Checksum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 04:58 | SOLUSDT Long | 65% | +1.40% | Window Close | d5e070ce...17e7b1 |
| Aug 20, 04:57 | ETHUSDT Short | 0% | -0.08% | Stop Band Crossed | 00776e99...7601bb |
| Aug 20, 04:57 | BTCUSDT Long | 75% | +1.24% | Window Close | 0369a9be...e8f10b |
| Aug 20, 01:56 | SOLUSDT Long | 65% | +1.51% | Window Close | a284ac98...f95244 |
| Aug 20, 01:55 | ETHUSDT Short | 0% | -0.08% | Stop Band Crossed | 062b8cee...e38236 |
| Aug 20, 01:54 | BTCUSDT Long | 65% | +1.16% | Window Close | 30da391a...763181 |
| Aug 19, 20:50 | SOLUSDT Long | 65% | +1.27% | Window Close | ed620000...5da67a |
| Aug 19, 20:49 | ETHUSDT Long | 65% | +1.54% | Window Close | 7edcaa19...e742d5 |
| Aug 19, 20:48 | BTCUSDT Long | 62% | +1.01% | Window Close | a928dc18...dae159 |
| Aug 19, 16:52 | SOLUSDT Long | 60% | +0.97% | Window Close | 343880af...0805d1 |
| Aug 19, 16:51 | ETHUSDT Long | 60% | +1.17% | Window Close | 88d4ff98...3f5328 |
| Aug 19, 16:50 | BTCUSDT Long | 68% | +1.07% | Window Close | 49ccab55...89e34d |
| Aug 19, 13:14 | ETHUSDT Long | 0% | +0.11% | Window Close | 535c6650...8fa9b9 |
| Aug 19, 13:13 | BTCUSDT Long | 0% | +0.12% | Window Close | 6205a5f7...56315a |
| Aug 19, 13:13 | SOLUSDT Long | 10% | +0.15% | Window Close | 1d2e2e88...ee2fee |
| Aug 19, 08:58 | SOLUSDT Long | 0% | +0.12% | Window Close | 3b5637cc...b8bb1f |
| Aug 19, 08:57 | ETHUSDT Long | 0% | +0.09% | Window Close | 5042a75c...fab910 |
| Aug 19, 08:57 | BTCUSDT Long | 0% | +0.09% | Window Close | f06fe40c...64ceb5 |
| Aug 19, 04:56 | SOLUSDT Long | 0% | +0.08% | Window Close | 0bac29ce...875f69 |
| Aug 19, 04:55 | ETHUSDT Flat | 0% | Resolved | No edge yet | 2347f41c...446a7e |
| Aug 19, 04:55 | BTCUSDT Long | 0% | +0.08% | Window Close | 21231845...3ef78d |
| Aug 19, 01:56 | SOLUSDT Long | 0% | -0.08% | Stop Band Crossed | 7000380e...5d013b |
| Aug 19, 01:56 | ETHUSDT Long | 0% | +0.07% | Window Close | 79d22316...81085b |
| Aug 19, 01:55 | BTCUSDT Long | 0% | +0.08% | Window Close | 85c7247e...15febd |
| Aug 18, 20:44 | SOLUSDT Long | 0% | -0.08% | Stop Band Crossed | 15a01c6f...9b89df |
| Aug 18, 20:43 | ETHUSDT Flat | 0% | Resolved | No edge yet | 60233fc9...c62a39 |
| Aug 18, 20:43 | BTCUSDT Long | 0% | +0.09% | Window Close | 8de53089...cf8b74 |
| Aug 18, 16:52 | SOLUSDT Long | 0% | +0.08% | Window Close | e8d0dd6f...65908c |
Stated conviction against the outcome that actually happened, two ways: on the trades the governor approved, and across all theses including the ones it refused. Lower Brier is better; 0.25 is a coin flip. Comparing the two shows whether the governor is selecting the decisions where the agent's confidence can be trusted, rather than trusting raw conviction. Small sample, growing each cycle.
Brier 0.2285 · n=79. Conviction vs realized win on the trades that cleared the gate.
| Stated conviction | Observed win rate | Decisions |
|---|---|---|
| 65% | 70.8333% | 24 |
| 68% | 50% | 6 |
| 70% | 71.4286% | 7 |
| 72% | 87.5% | 16 |
| 75% | 52.6316% | 19 |
| 76% | 0% | 1 |
| 78% | 66.6667% | 3 |
| 80% | 100% | 1 |
| 85% | 50% | 2 |
Brier 0.4899 · n=807. Conviction vs outcome across taken trades and refused counterfactuals.
| Stated conviction | Observed win rate | Decisions |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | 53.3724% | 682 |
| 10% | 60% | 5 |
| 15% | 60% | 5 |
| 25% | 0% | 1 |
| 30% | 100% | 1 |
| 40% | 0% | 2 |
| 45% | 50% | 2 |
| 52% | 100% | 1 |
| 55% | 0% | 4 |
| 60% | 46.6667% | 15 |
| 62% | 75% | 4 |
| 65% | 72.4138% | 29 |
| 68% | 50% | 6 |
| 70% | 71.4286% | 7 |
| 72% | 87.5% | 16 |
| 75% | 55% | 20 |
| 76% | 0% | 1 |
| 78% | 66.6667% | 3 |
| 80% | 100% | 1 |
| 85% | 50% | 2 |
Catalyst runs a complete Playbook loop: scan Bitget markets, ask Qwen for a thesis, pass the thesis through deterministic trigger, risk, and stop checks, simulate execution when approved, and write a checksum-backed receipt either way.
The browser verifier recomputes the latest receipt checksum. If receipt content changes, the hash fails.
PASS0369a9be...e8f10b0369a9be...e8f10bVetoReceipt untouched. Browser hash matches the public checksum.
No public Studio rank is claimed unless a reproducible public GetAgent URL is supplied.